UNPRECEDENTED UNCERTAINTY

29.09.18

THE UK HOUSING MARKET IS EXPERIENCING UNPRECEDENTED UNCERTAINTY

  • Political and economic uncertainty.
  • Brexit uncertainty.
  • The high cost of stamp duty land tax following reform in Autumn 2014 plus the introduction of the 3% second home owner surcharge in Spring 2016.
  • The reduction in tax relief for financing costs for buy-to-let landlords.
  • The possibility of more tax exposure for overseas buyers, due to the proposed stamp duty surcharge of up to 3% for overseas buyers. This will be the subject of a government consultation in the early 2019.
  • The expectation of interest rate rises.

THE CURRENT RISKS TO THE MARKET

  • Brexit pushes the UK into recession.
  • Interest rates rise faster than expected.
  • Political change & further tax increases.

Savills 5 Year Market Predictions

The latest release from the Savills:

  • Brexit uncertainty will last into the transitionary period.
  • The bounce will be delayed until 2021.
  • The bounce will be a bit weaker because of SDLT changes.
  • The general election will suppress growth in 2022.

Source: Savills

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